Some great points, and contentious arguments, are outlined in this article surrounding the idea that there are a select group of influential people that influence societal trends. This idea, outlined in Malcolm Gladwell's "The Tipping Point, has profoundly impacted the marketing industry for a number of years. The idea that certain people can "tip off" a trend, such as Hush Puppies in the mid-1990's as outlined in the article, gives a marketing agency a defined and scalable task: find and impact these select few.
Duncan Watts counters this contention with sophisticated computer models and large-scale studies, one of mirrors, though on a broader scale, Stanley Milgrams famous "Six Degrees of Separation" experiment in the 1960's. Though that initial study suggested a select 3 people accounted for over 50% of the final "degrees of separation" Duncan's study found this does not translate to a larger-scale experiment and was likely a statistical anomaly. The fact is, according to Duncan, successful trends have less to do with who starts them as it does with a societies general receptiveness to an idea or product. He uses forest fires as an analogy. No matter how powerful an initial spark is, if it occurs in a rain soaked, sparse forest with a well-equipped fire department near-by, it is unlikely to spread.
Duncan's ideas are well-conceived. No matter how influential a person (or group) is, they are not going to spark a societal trend based on their sole endorsement. Some of the methods used to support this idea have back-tracked successful trends to find that a few key-influencers helped spread the idea. This process takes for granted that the trend became successful though. I am sure unsuccessful trends would reveal a similar anomaly. I also feel they over-look the genuine nature of an endorsement here. They speak in great depth about key people with many social contacts beginning a trend, but I would like to see how these results vary when those people are paid to endorse the trend as opposed to genuinely discussing a product or idea they believe in.
People have become more and more sensitive to advertising in our society. A guard goes up as soon as we think we are being pitched a product or idea. Advertisers these days are tasked with approaching consumers while their guard is down, if they can do this they become much more influential. I imagine the same is true with trend setters. If their social network believes they are genuine in their endorsement the trends will be more likely to succeed.
Rating: 8/10
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